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Are You Betting on the Horse or the Jockey?

8/22/2014

3 Comments

 
Picture
In the world of horse racing the handicappers look at how the racehorse has performed over the past season and then match that up with the track record of the jockey to determine if it is a winning combination.  They weigh that against all the other horses and jockeys in the race to determine if it is a good bet.  

When considering what films to make, producers have to make critical choices about selecting the genre, plot and the characters.  Due to marketing and financing considerations, it often comes down to a choice between betting on a genre specific project such as a thriller, scifi, action or horror movie, without any recognizable stars in it, or going with a bankable movie star and/or director.  So, do you bet on the horse (genre+plot+script) or the jockey (highly recognizable actor)? 

Distributors can sometimes establish a market value for genre films before they are completed, thus making the likelihood for pre-sales far greater than ‘execution-dependent’ films.  It is more difficult to assess the audience appeal of execution-dependent films based on the concept alone, as their success is contingent upon a number of unpredictable factors, such as reviews and release timing.  Such films have historically achieved lower pre-sales as the market tends to wait and see the finished product; hence, the need to rely on bankable stars and/or a name director to promote these films at the markets.

Unfortunately, this has also resulted in a glut of low-budget, genre driven movies; so much so that the distributors/foreign sales agents are now starting to reject these projects unless they also have a movie star attached in a lead role.  No longer will Eric Roberts or Gary Busey fit the bill.  An oversupply of low budget films has pushed down demand and allowed the international buyers to be more selective. 

I would have to also add that the person who bets on the horse and jockey also needs to consider what kinds of race they are running.  Is it a steeplechase, quarter horse, or thoroughbred race? Different races call for different kinds of horses and jockeys.  The bottom line is that money can be made in each kind of race, if you know what you're doing.1

Such is film.  The films sold at Cannes are vastly different from those sold at Fantastic Fest. Direct to video horror movies may surpass an Oscar nominee with a small theatrical release in earnings.  An Oscar winner may outpace the summer blockbuster over years of VOD and TV deals.  It's all relative as long as you position yourself well in the race of your choosing.  No matter what race you run, make sure you know what you are getting into.  That way you can increase your chances of winning every time.1

Investors often see genre driven films as low risk, quick turnaround opportunities, but they are also drawn to the higher quality projects with internationally bankable stars and directors with an attractive risk/return profile.  Everything depends on the distribution that the producers can line up.

So, do you bet on the horse or the jockey?  Increasingly, the answer is both.  Just like in horse racing, the handicappers are putting their money down on the combination of the two and comparing that to all the other horses and jockeys in the field.

Today, filmmakers run the risk of making that $250,000 scifi thriller, without finding any sales agent that will take it.  It’s kind of like building a mansion out of cardboard, just because you could do it, does it mean that you should?  That does not mean that a $100 million high concept film starring Johnny Depp and Morgan Freeman is a sure bet either, just look at what a disaster Transcendence was for Warner Bros.  As Mark Lágrimas says, “…money can be made in each kind of race, if you know what you're doing.”

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1 Contributed by Mark Lágrimas, a former Disney, MGM & CBS film & television analyst.  Now an independent filmmaker with Best Served Cold Productions.


3 Comments
Larry Goebel
8/22/2014 10:58:56 am

Stephen:

You've hit the bulls-eye once again with your most recent article. I really enjoy reading your blog and learning more insights into this constantly changing business of ours. Keep 'em coming!

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Steve Jasmine link
8/22/2014 01:05:36 pm

In terms of box office performance there is no statistical correlation between that and the stars, directors or producers of a movie. Rather the creative factors in the story are the only factors that correlate to box office success. The only problem is that most of the movie industry seems to be unaware of this statistical fact, or unwilling to acknowledge it.

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Mark Lagrimas link
8/23/2014 09:48:19 am

Hi Steve, there are two things you need to consider. The first point is that box office statistics released for public consumption usually only included U.S. domestic and worldwide box office. Also, rarely is home video/VOD information made public. As such, the public is not privy to the things that insiders see on a daily basis. As an ex-studio analyst, I can tell you with absolute certainty that there are some solid correlation between certain established stars and directors. However figuring out whether movies succeed or fail can be attributed to any number of factors in clouding marketing strategy, competition on the release date, and corporate decision making among other things. Really horrible films make money all the time. Really amazing films fall through the cracks...but there usually is a reason (or many) as to why that happens.

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    Stephen Kerr is president of BMC (Business Marketing Consultants), a subsidiary of Bel Age Medias. 

    He has 30 years experience in the media and entertainment industry. 

    ​See more on his LinkedIn profile.

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